← Moonshot Parlays · the parlay machine that tells you the odds

NFL Week 4 player props: the machine's pool

276 player-prop legs across 14 games from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Hard Rock, BetRivers, Fanatics. Each shows its best listed price and the market's fair chance, the probability left once each book's margin is removed, anchored on Pinnacle. Lines as of October 5, 2026. Lines move, so verify every line and price at your book.

Build a parlay from these legs →

The machine's moonshot for Week 4

One official 10-leg ticket, drawn with a published seed (20260930). DraftKings pays +102,618 · about 1 in 1,910. How it did →

  1. Jaylen Warren — Under 23.5 receiving yards -113
  2. Courtland Sutton — Over 37.5 receiving yards -112
  3. Josh Allen — Over 31.5 rushing yards -110
  4. Patrick Mahomes — Over 241.5 passing yards -112
  5. Jaylen Waddle — Over 57.5 receiving yards -110
  6. KC Concepcion — Yes Anytime TD +320
  7. Bucky Irving — Over 13.5 receiving yards -109
  8. Amon-Ra St. Brown — Under 77.5 receiving yards -110
  9. Roman Wilson — Under 2.5 receptions -158
  10. Jakobi Meyers — Over 3.5 receptions -151

Every leg in the Week 4 pool

Arizona Cardinals @ New York GiantsSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston TexansSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati BengalsSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia EaglesSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

New England Patriots @ Buffalo BillsSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

New York Jets @ Chicago BearsSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore RavensSun Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota VikingsSun Oct 4, 1:05 PM PT

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ersSun Oct 4, 1:25 PM PT

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas RaidersSun Oct 4, 1:25 PM PT

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle SeahawksSun Oct 4, 1:25 PM PT

Detroit Lions @ Carolina PanthersSun Oct 4, 5:20 PM PT

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans SaintsMon Oct 5, 5:15 PM PT

How the machine prices a ticket

  1. Translate. American odds become an implied chance for every leg.
  2. Price it fair. Each leg carries its fair chance from the cross-book market; the machine multiplies them for the ticket's true odds. Same-game correlation isn't modeled, and the receipt flags well-known linked pairs.
  3. Show the gap. The book's payout is compared with the fair payout. The difference is the book's hold.